"If they can fog a mirror we'll give them a loan."
- Loan originator unwritten rule leading up to the financial meltdown
Image source here.

- Liaquat Ahamed, Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke The World, 2009, pp. 136-7The aristocracy that had ruled Britain for much of the previous century had been badly damaged—as one contemporary author wrote, albeit with some exaggeration, "In the useless slaughter of the Guards on the Somme, or of the Rifle Brigade in Hooge Wood, half the great families, heirs of large estates and wealth, perished without a cry." After enduring savage losses in the fighting—the casualty rate had been three times heavier among junior officers, many of them aristocrats, than among enlisted men—the old elite had also been hurt by wartime inflation and was now being decimated by postwar economic dislocations. Land prices had collapsed and many large estates been put up for auction. In place of the old and confident ruling class, a whole new breed—"hard-faced men who had looked as if they had done well out of the war," as one eminent politician described his new colleagues in the House of Commons—had come to power.

They cemented and formalized a political trend that has been snowballing for decades: the gradual takeover of the government by a small class of connected insiders, who used money to control elections, buy influence and systematically weaken financial regulations.His Rolling Stone article is here.

1992 Cadillac Sedan de Ville owner's forum here. Megan McArdle thinks GM is toast.
Image source here.They understood instantly, for instance, that finance had less to do with productive enterprise than trading bits of paper among themselves. And when they lent money they didn’t simply facilitate enterprise but bankrolled friends and family, so that they might buy and own things, like real investment bankers: Beverly Hills condos, British soccer teams and department stores, Danish airlines and media companies, Norwegian banks, Indian power plants.
Yet another hedge-fund manager explained Icelandic banking to me this way: You have a dog, and I have a cat. We agree that they are each worth a billion dollars. You sell me the dog for a billion, and I sell you the cat for a billion. Now we are no longer pet owners, but Icelandic banks, with a billion dollars in new assets.
The market wasn't able to predict the current recession, at least not in any useful way, so why trust it to predict when the economy will emerge?
The current state of the stock market is only one of many factors to be weighed when assessing the health of an economy. An important factor perhaps, but not the only one. Perhaps not even the primary one.